Sh*t Costs Too Much: Heating Oil
Heating oil will cost Americans about 21% more this winter — and 39% more across New York and New England — as the war with Iran chokes off global oil supply.
Sh*t Costs Too Much.
Fact sheet · 2026
21%
More than last winter that heating oil will cost Americans nationwide
39%
More that New York and New England families will pay to heat the average home this winter
$674
More Maine families will pay this year to fill a standard home heating oil tank
Americans are paying more for everything these days — especially energy. With oil prices through the roof, eye-popping diesel and gas prices have been breaking drivers’ budgets at the pump for months. As winter approaches, yet another high-cost energy source will hit millions of Americans soon: heating oil. In some parts of the country, especially the Northeast, the millions of households that rely on heating oil just to stay warm will pay record sums this season — and the rising cost is forcing families across New York and New England into impossible decisions just to make ends meet.
Key points
- Nationwide, heating oil will cost Americans around 21% more than last winter, but the cost burden falls hardest on the states that rely on home heating oil. Across New York and New England, families are poised to pay 39% more to heat the average home this winter than in 2025.
- The price hike ranges from 32% for New York families, who will pay an average $598 more this year to fill a standard home heating oil tank, to 46% for Maine families, who will pay an average $674 more.
- High energy costs impact working families the most. Households earning under $50,000 a year spend nearly 6 times more of their income on energy than households earning more than $150,000 a year.
- Household electric bills are already up over 15% nationally since January 2025, with some states seeing spikes as high as 30%. Heading into winter, 41% of Americans are extremely or very concerned about affording their electricity in the next few months, up from 35% in July.
- Americans are more worried about energy costs than at any point since the war began. Nearly three in four (74%) now say they are very concerned about the price of gas and energy, up from 43% in January — the highest share Pew has recorded.
- Families were already struggling before this winter’s spike. Federal data show that one in four American households cut back on food or medicine to pay an energy bill in 2024, nearly 18 million kept their homes at unhealthy temperatures, and 6.8 million could not run their heat at all.
- Utility bill debt balances have spiked 32% over the past four years.
Core drivers
War with Iran curbs supply, spiking oil and gas costs for everyone
At the end of February, the U.S. launched strikes against Iran, sparking a war that has shuttered the critical seaway used for transporting a fifth of the world’s oil supplies, sending prices through the roof for oil products, including home heating oil.
Over seven months in, the war with Iran has no end date
The White House predicted the war would be over in four to six weeks. Over seven months later, Iran still frequently attacks ships and disrupts oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, peace talks are at a standstill, and the conflict’s spillover into the Arabian Peninsula has depressed Saudi oil exports, further disrupting global supply flows.
The administration was warned before it fired a shot
Intelligence and military leaders told the president that Iran would answer strikes by closing the Strait of Hormuz and throwing oil markets into chaos. He attacked anyway, and those warnings have come true at the pump.
The federal government revoked energy funding and pushed to rip away home heating help
Over the past year and a half, the federal government has ripped away tens of billions of dollars in funding for clean energy projects, resulting in a loss of over 42 gigawatts worth of energy capacity, which could have powered an estimated 22 million homes. Blocking new clean energy projects has constrained the country’s electricity supply, driving up costs amid soaring demand from consumers facing more extreme winter weather and the explosive growth of AI data centers. Earlier this year, the government also pushed to eliminate the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), which helps hard-working families afford to heat their homes.
Every figure here is sourced and linked to public reporting, government data, and independent analysis.
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